2012 Gasoline Price Forecast

2012 Gasoline Price Forecast

As I sit in the airport, I see the front page USA Today “Most ever could get hit by $5 gasoline”.   This reminds me to revisit my old blog I posted last year about the rule of thumb for forecasting the peak gasoline price.   Now that the fourth quarter data is available, your trusted energy consultant has given you the magic wand to be as great of a pundit as those found in the USA Today article.  According to the EIA , the fourth quarter USGC gasoline averaged $2.59/gallon.   Using the magic wand, we produce a retail price range of $3.70-$5/gallon with the most likely result being closer to $4/gallon.   Now you too can be in the USA Today.

Let me remind you the reason I posted the original article in the first place.  At the time of the blog, the administration was taking credit for the lower gasoline price.   I warned them in the blog this was not wise and that they are missing the seasonal factors.  In addition, I noted prices on a year to year basis were up 30%.  Now we see the Republicans blaming the President for high gasoline prices.   I will say the President’s ability to control gasoline prices in the near term is very limited, but it goes with the territory for taking credit when it was low in December.  The lesson to learn is: Be careful about taking credit when it is not yours to take.

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Your Energy Consultant (Former Front Page USA Today Pundit ’98 Crude Oil Collapse),


David K. Bellman

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