Be wary of Energy articles ….take the time to go an inch deep
I found this article highlighted and posted on several sites – http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/blog/post/2013/09/utility-agrees-their-solar-should-supplant-natural-gas#!
I was not planning to respond to this article posting as I did not want to legitimize the article, but it looks like there are so many comments on it already and that it has spread to many other sites. I think I can, at least, use the article to highlight the fact that many people post them without much substance, and it seems like the public does not mind or care. All you have to do is look an inch deep to see this article is not credible.
This article is clearly bias from the author to the publisher – probably no different than those found on the American Petroleum Institute on Oil & Gas related documents.
The article tries to relay an analytical unbiased rigor – however, that is clearly not the case with just a simple digging of the facts. Mr. Farrell reports the cost of a natural gas power plant which at the very least he links to the report. However, I guess he knows the average reader will not look into it, and it will make him look like he is on top of it. The report is a 2009 California report. IF one just took the time to look at it, the report is not a good document to source from. The natural gas price used in the report for 2013 is $8.28/mmbtu and rising to $12.23 by 2020. For a frame of reference the current forward curve for natural gas is marked at $4.96/mmbtu for 2020. The current fuel price shows a 60% discount from the report he is referring his readers to.
In addition as I have noted many times, Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) needs to be taken with some caution – http://allenergyconsulting.com/blog/2012/06/05/levelized-cost-of-electricity-lcoe-analysis-potentially-misguides-you-in-the-power-markets/ LCOE gives the person who is doing the calculation many opportunities to introduce bias – from assumed operational performance without incorporating reality.
I understand people will post things likely to their bias, but I do not think we should legitimize articles which lack any analytical rigor. I really did not have to dig far to see the article lacked substance. If Mr. Farrell just focused on the falling solar prices – which is a real, credible and worthy of noting – then, the article could have had some credibility. However, he introduces a comparison which is outdated, only to support an attention getting theme, which holds no credibility, but in fact, misinforms the reader.
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