Adaptation will happen as the climate changes
The key sentence with keywords bolded from my previous discussion of climate change is “statistical odd that climate change is real, and that it could have significant impact to society.” I leave room for doubt as many things cannot be modeled. Simple things such as predicting cloud formation is still not understood. Given simple things cannot be understood one could surely extrapolate, perhaps more complicated feedbacks are not incorporated appropriately in many climate models. A recent discovery in the arctic articulates this issue.
The article points out a new massive discovery of phytoplankton in the arctic. In addition they note the following: “…it could explain how the ocean has been absorbing larger quantities of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere than data could verify, the researchers suggest.” This bio-feedback from higher CO2 contents demonstrates how the earth/nature will adapt to changes. There are other bio-feedbacks that have been demonstrated. Scientists have noted that certain plants are becoming more dominant as CO2 content in the atmosphere increases. This would make Darwinian sense in the fact if the environment is changing those creatures/plants that would prefer easier access to CO2 will be more dominant as more CO2 is available in the atmosphere. Duke demonstrated this bio-feedback with poison ivy being the beneficial plant.
These types of bio-feedback are not all captured in the various climate models. There are so many areas we do not fully understand or can comprehend. However on a risk adjusted basis, I will stick with my premise that there is a statistical odd that the models are showing a possibility of unintended consequences of our emissions of CO2. As I concluded in the previous blog, we will likely have to adapt due to societies focus on Carpe Diem.
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David K. Bellman
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