Power Market Analysis (PMA)

Analyzing the power markets require significant amount of experience and cross industry knowledge.  All Energy Consulting (AEC)  has put together Power Market Analysis (PMA) to deliver market insights for your success.  Today’s constant connections allows us to deliver insights daily.  PMA is here for you whenever you need it given its daily computations.   PMA is prepared for any major market changes.

PMA is designed for the most complex and rigorous users (trading/hedge funds) but can also be easily simplified for fuel procurement groups in order for them to make evaluate their energy options to equity analysis needing to understand generation asset performances.  A better understanding of the power markets can add significant value to trading, hedging, budgeting, commodity fundamentals, planning, and policy lobbying.

AEC is offering an integrated view of the power markets through two different suites of products – Power Market Analysis (PMA) NT and PMA LT.  Both products are put together based on numerous years of experience in the power, coal, and gas markets.   PMA has been tested to produce valuable insights into the power prices and fuel consumption in the power sector for coal and gas. PMA processing backbone uses the AuroraXMP developed by EPIS.   AEC has over 10 years of experience in operating and managing EPIS products.   The model is only a portion of the process.

PMA value comes from the rigorous work to setup the model to accurately portray the markets.   AEC 18+ year experience in the analyzing the energy markets has enable PMA to substantially improve the efficacy of the model.  The entire N. American power grid is modeled. PMA NT can be designed to run daily producing as many variations of monthly forecast cases as time permits e.g. base, high power price, low power price, high gas demand, and low gas demand – for all major power pricing hubs for the next 2 years.   We can work with you to design the scenarios to meet your particular needs.  A risk adjusted future curve can be generated daily.  State by state monthly gas demand from the power sector as well as coal basin demand can be presented.

PMA LT is a monthly forecast out to 2035 produced quarterly.   Given the long-term outlook, a fundamental gas view point was developed in coordination with RBAC the makers of the GPCM® Natural Gas Market Model.   The quarterly outlook will present monthly prices for all major N. American power hubs.  In addition, a report will be included to support the outlook.  Description of retirement and expected new builds will be detailed in the report.  PMA LT subscribers can get access to gas pricing and a report supporting the gas fundamental outlook. Customization of long-term outlook (e.g. Carbon policy) is also available to subscribers. Please call or email David Bellman (dkb@allenergyconsulting.com) 614-356-0484 for further information.

Our Calibrations Are the Best!

Never use any results from anyone without seeing their historical calibration runs.  If they don’t have them move on.

   

*Many more regions available.

PMA processing backbone uses the AuroraXMP developed by EPIS.   AEC has over 10 years of experience in operating and managing EPIS products.   The model is only a portion of the process.   PMA value comes from the rigorous work to setup the model to accurately portray the markets. With PMA you will potentially receive access to a daily developed two-year outlook for projected monthly coal and gas consumption by the power sector. In addition, clients interested in power prices will receive projected power prices from across North America. Our model can run daily, incorporating the latest viewpoints from the forward gas and coal markets. The base model will also use AEC’s proprietary load forecasting model to project normal weather conditions. PMA is designed to be able to be customized.   The default PMA runs 5 scenarios each day just to be able to show the capabilities of PMA.   You can choose to do as many sensitivities – time permitting.   We can work with you on developing the sensitivities that make sense to your markets.  

PMA Platform also includes our powerful trade screeners – allowing you to filter for trades which meet your criterias.

PMA will also offer additional analysis such as our monthly snapshot into the next month.   We will present a range of outcomes as a result of natural gas price change to other pertinent variables.   

In addition our online interface allows you to quickly see how the market is changing and how different cases compare to each other.  With a few clicks you can easily see the difference between cases.   In the example below we take a look at the change in gas consumption if weather and hydro capability was like that in 2001. 

Customization is available to subscribers.  Customization ranges from customizing inputs to outputs.  PMA is flexible to allow custom studies to be developed.   A subscriber will have access to PMA key metrics which drive the model.   These metrics include gas price (henry hub and 32 basis), coal price (6 benchmark), GDP (Total and 8 economic zones), 9 weather zones, and various emission prices.

Custom output is available which includes the ability to produce generator and unit specific information from generation, fuel burn, fuel cost and many more.

Brochure: PMA-NT for Trading, PMA-NT for Procurement/Hedging, and PMA-LT for Planning Please call or email David Bellman (dkb@allenergyconsulting.com) 614-356-0484 for further information.

PMA for Coal

PMA for Natural Gas

 

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Customer Service

Because AEC’s process and methodology can effectively replace a team of data research assistants, we run a flat organization. Every account is handled by an experienced analyst who is willing to work with you to jointly understand the volatile energy markets. When you call, your analyst will pick-up the phone to answer your questions.

 

 

 

 

Commitment to our clients:

  • To deliver on time and within budget

  • Directly connected to senior analyst when you call not an operator or inexperienced analyst.

  • Answer all your questions, but also answers to questions you should ask.

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Process and Methodology

At most firms, the data, process, and method used for forecasting is kept a secret. These days however, there is significant public data readily available.  AEC data collection, process, and methodology is built for complete customization giving your planning transparency, flexibility and accountability.

 

 

 

 

Commitment to our clients:

  • Offer transparency in our process of forecasting

  • Allow you to customized and modify our process and methods where applicable.

  • All data, process, and methodology are shared with you.

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Knowledge Transfer

The stress of presenting to the Utilities Commission, your supervisors, your investors, and/or the community you serve is compounded when you don’t know the answers. With AEC, not only will you be able to make a robust decision, you’ll establish a track record of knowing how and why markets are evolving.  Our process is designed for collaboration – we first educate ourselves on your needs and expertise and then we work with you in applying that knowledge to our energy expertise.

We believe knowledge will drive your continued success.

 

 

 

 

Commitment to our clients:

  • Educate and empower you to be able to make effective decisions along with the capability to answering questions from your stakeholders.

  • Collaborate with you to design the right process to solve your needs.

  • You will be given knowledge not just data.

 

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Electric Power Consulting

At AEC we understand the complete picture of the electric markets having been leading the strategic plan for one of the largest utilities in the US.   We know the issues from regulations to de-regulations to generation planning to residential consumer choice.  The issues are vast and far between.  There are known market experts in each of these issues, but ultimately the picture needs to be put together.   We specialize in putting the pieces together to create a robust strategic plan so whether its your board, utility commision, and/or the rate payer they understand your vision.  We can help in scenario planning to acquistion due dilligence.

 

AEC expertise range from:

  • Assist in developing and/or implementing a robust process for Resource Planning
  • Formulate a process to identify and measure risk for:
    -  Climate Policy and Carbon Pricing
    -  Renewable Subsidies
    -  Economy / Load Forecasting
    -  Market Game Changers
  • Develop hedging programs to mitigate price volatility
  • Assist in Scenario Planning
  • Third Party Affirmation on Strategy / Resource Plan – Support investment decisions for internal and regulatory needs
  • Technology Assessment – Evaluate technology on both Engineering and Financial basis
  • Fuel Sourcing – Help identify the optimal fuel supply sources
  • Regulation / Policy Impact Study – Evaluate Impacts to the Market and/or Particular Assets
  • Business Opportunities – Identify cross functional opportunities to extract more value (e.g. Gas Trading, Optimizing stranded assets)
  • Assist in formulation and design of Power Trading to balance risk and internal goals

 

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PMA for Coal Companies

Subscribers Logon: http://allenergyconsulting.com/Data/

Coal has gone through a tremendous change as natural gas and renewables have impacted coal demand from the power sector.  Understanding the drivers of the power market can provide key insights for short-term operational decisions and longer-term contracting, pricing, hedging and planning decisions.

Supply and Demand balance can shift rapidly.   Utilities coal purchasing is likely in flux.  Coal markets need better insights to power markets.

Coal supply numbers are fairly easy to predict, however demand can swing wildly due to:   (1) weather events; (2) fuel switching in the electric power industry.   The solution is to develop accurate and reliable forecasts of coal demand.

In 2013, coal demand for power sector represented 93% of total demand.   The impacts of coal demand for the power sector will result from (1) weather-related demand for electric power; (2) economics driving demand for coal within the U.S. power generation fleet.  For number 1, a load model is needed to understand how weather impacts demand for electric power.   Number 2 requires further analysis plus new skill sets as electric markets are dependent on various commodities (e.g. gas, coal, nuclear, and oil) and regional polices (e.g. CO2, Renewable Mandates).

Power Market Analysis (PMA) is here to solve #1 and #2 modeling methods for you.  Sophisticated understanding of electric power markets coupled with detailed modeling of power generation fleet.   Years of testing have validated the accuracy of the model.  Prime subscribers get additional analysis such as the Summer 2014 Report – Download Free Version.

Validation:

Sample Analysis:

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PMA for Gas Companies

Subscribers Logon:  http://allenergyconsulting.com/Data/

Natural gas is one of the most volatile commodities in the U.S. — both at a macro level and within micro-markets.  Understanding the drivers of this market can provide key insights for short-term operational decisions and longer-term contracting, pricing, hedging and planning decisions.  Insights on regional demand will also help in understanding basis pricing.

Supply and Demand balance can shift rapidly.   Natural gas storage acts as a buffer for physical deliveries, but price fluctuations can result in significant income variances.

Natural gas supply numbers are fairly easy to predict, however demand can swing wildly due to:   (1) weather events; (2) fuel switching in the electric power industry.   The solution is to develop accurate and reliable forecasts of natural gas demand.

Three major modeling methods must be used to forecast natural gas demand:  (1) weather-related demand for natural gas for heating; (2) weather-related demand for electric power; (3) economics driving demand for natural gas within the U.S. power generation fleet.  Number 1 is very consistent and will produce a high correlation using the historical weather data and actual demand.  Number 2 requires further analysis as electricity markets are not tied together as natural gas demand.   Number 3 requires further analysis plus new skill sets as electric markets are dependent on various commodities (e.g. gas, coal, nuclear, and oil) and regional polices (e.g. CO2, Renewable Mandates).

Power Market Analysis (PMA) is here to solve #2 and #3 modeling methods for you.  Sophisticated understanding of electric power markets coupled with detailed modeling of power generation fleet.   Years of testing have validated the accuracy of the model.  Output in easy to access state by state demand MS Excel files.  Files can be easily used with GCPM natural gas model by RBAC.  Model is run daily with 5 sensitivities keeping you always up to date on the expected gas demand from the power sector.

Validation Graph:

Sample Analysis:

 

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Power Market Analysis (PMA)

Subscriber Logon: http//allenergyconsulting.com/Data/Problem:

  • Gas forwards are not always aligned with power forwards due to the plethora of variables involved in the power markets from multiple commodities to significant governmental actions on both regionally and federal.
  • Analyzing the power markets is a complicated process, but it plays an integral part in companies’ bottom line and the fundamentals in gas and coal markets.
  • A better understanding of the power markets can add significant value to trading, hedging, budgeting, commodity fundamentals, planning, and policy lobbying.
  • Too many Monday morning quarterbacks in decisions to manage power contracts – clients need support on their decisions.

Solution: All Energy Consulting (AEC) is offering an integrated view of the power markets through two different suites of products – Power Market Analysis (PMA) NT and PMA LT.  Both products are put together based on numerous years of experience in the power, coal, and gas markets.   PMA has been tested to produce valuable insights into the power prices and fuel consumption in the power sector for coal and gas. PMA processing backbone uses the AuroraXMP developed by EPIS.   AEC has over 10 years of experience in operating and managing EPIS products.   The model is only a portion of the process.

PMA value comes from the rigorous work to setup the model to accurately portray the markets.   AEC 18+ year experience in the analyzing the energy markets has enable PMA to substantially improve the efficacy of the model.  The entire N. American power grid is modeled. PMA NT will run daily producing monthly forecast cases – base, high power price, low power price, high gas demand, and low gas demand – for all major power pricing hubs for the next 2 years.   The base case will be based on a normal weather outlook and a consensus GDP outlook.  Due to the near-term nature and the capability to transact in the market, the base inputs represent the forward curves for both gas and coal.  The other cases are based on changes in weather, plant operations, and gas prices.  Customization of cases is available to subscribers (inputs & outputs).

State by state monthly gas demand from the power sector as well as coal basin demand will be presented. PMA LT is a monthly forecast out to 2035 produced quarterly.   Given the long-term outlook, a fundamental gas view point was developed in coordination with RBAC the makers of the GPCM® Natural Gas Market Model.   The quarterly outlook will present monthly prices for all major N. American power hubs.  In addition, a report will be included to support the outlook.  Description of retirement and expected new builds will be detailed in the report.  PMA LT subscribers can get access to gas pricing and a report supporting the gas fundamental outlook. Customization of long-term outlook (e.g. Carbon policy) is also available to subscribers. Please call or email David Bellman (dkb@allenergyconsulting.com) 614-356-0484 for further information.

*Many more regions available. PMA processing backbone uses the AuroraXMP developed by EPIS.   AEC has over 10 years of experience in operating and managing EPIS products.   The model is only a portion of the process.   PMA value comes from the rigorous work to setup the model to accurately portray the markets. With PMA you’ll receive access to a daily developed two-year outlook for projected monthly coal and gas consumption by the power sector. In addition, clients interested in power prices will receive projected power prices from across North America. Our model will run daily, incorporating the latest viewpoints from the forward gas and coal markets. The base model will also use AEC’s proprietary load forecasting model to project normal weather conditions. Two sensitivities will be generated along with the base case – high and low power price cases. The high power price case will take the previous 5-year CDD and HDD maximums and apply them appropriately, GDP growth adjusted by 0.5% upwards, Henry Hub forwards will be increased 50 cents per MMbtu, and new builds will be shifted 1 year. The low case is the inverse of the high case. with retirements being shifted a year.  These three cases will give you a good perspective on the high and low expectations in the power market. PMA will also offer additional analysis such as our monthly snapshot into the next month.   We will present a range of outcomes as a result of natural gas price change to other pertinent variables.

In addition our online interface allows you to quickly see how the market is changing and how different cases compare to each other.  With a few clicks you can easily see the difference between cases.   In the example below we take a look at the change in gas consumption if weather and hydro capability was like that in 2001.

Customization is available to subscribers.  Customization ranges from customizing inputs to outputs.  PMA is flexible to allow custom studies to be developed.   A subscriber will have access to PMA key metrics which drive the model.   These metrics include gas price (henry hub and 32 basis), coal price (6 benchmark), GDP (Total and 8 economic zones), 9 weather zones, and various emission prices.

Custom output is available which includes the ability to produce generator and unit specific information from generation, fuel burn, fuel cost and many more.

Brochure: PMA-NT for Trading and PMA-LT for Planning Please call or email David Bellman (dkb@allenergyconsulting.com) 614-356-0484 for further information.

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Refinery Consulting

AEC expertise range from:

  • Petroleum Products Market Studies with Supply/Demand Projections and a Risk Assessment
  • Identify and Evaluate Hedging and Trading Opportunities for Crude Oil and Petroleum Products
  • Crude Oil Valuation and Pricing
  • Refining Technology Assessment
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Modeling

Others speak foreign languages, at AEC we speak  MS Excel, SQL, Visual Basic, Php, and Energy.  Our capabilities to build complex and data intensive interactive models are the best in the industry.   We have built crude oil evaluation models, refinery linear optimization models, discounted cash flow models requiring numerous inputs from various sources, and more…  It is not just the ability to design and program that gets the job done – it is in addition to already knowing your issues.  Building and operating great models require strong problem solving skills.  Hiring AEC will lead to increase knowledge for you and your team as we not only supply numbers, we work with you and explain the key drivers.

Models Built in 2014:

Oil & Gas

  • Built a USGC refinery model in various configurations – Hydroskimming, Cracking, and Coking
  • Discounted Cash Flow Model for Refinery Acquisition and Refurbishment
  • USGC and Caribbean petroleum pricing models
  • Modeled the US Natural Gas Deliveries to Electric Power Consumers by State
  • Modeled and Calculated the discount value for Eagle Ford Condensate
  • Built World Supply/Demand Balance Model for Crude Oil and Petroleum Products

Power

  • Assisted Platte River Power Authority (PRPA) in deployment (setup, build, and operate) of a power model used for their Integrated Resource Plan
  • Several Discounted Cash Flow Model for Power Generation Asset – 800 MW CC to 1MW Reciprocating Engine
  • Worked with the University of Texas Center for Energy Economic on modeling and publishing papers regarding ERCOT
  • Modeled EPA Clean Power Plan and published paper in Fortnightly
  • Long-term Power Modeling along with integrating GCPM gas pipeline model
  • Built and Operate Power Market Analysis (PMA) Platform – includes integrated trade screeners to integrated natural gas storage models.
  • Built an interactive load model for 118 load zones representing N. America
  • Built a coal pricing model to deliver and price coal to all 1000+ coal units in N. America
  • Discounted Cash Flow Model for an Integrated Desalination Plant with Associated Power Generation and Recycle Facility for Waste Water from Fracking

Models are only as good as the inputs and the ability to decipher the outputs to business solutions.  Please do consider All Energy Consulting for your energy modeling needs. We have a strong passion and commitment to you because we enjoy what we do.

Please call or email David Bellman (dkb@allenergyconsulting.com) 614-356-0484 for further information.

 

 

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Process and Methodology

At most firms, the data, process, and method used for forecasting is kept a secret. These days however, there is significant public data readily available.  AEC data collection, process, and methodology is built for complete customization giving your planning transparency, flexibility and accountability.

read more

Customer Service

Because AEC’s process and methodology can effectively replace a team of data research assistants, we run a flat organization. Every account is handled by an experienced analyst who is willing to work with you to jointly understand the volatile energy markets. When you call, your analyst will pick-up the phone to answer your questions.

read more