{"id":992,"date":"2014-02-12T07:40:27","date_gmt":"2014-02-12T13:40:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/?p=992"},"modified":"2014-02-12T13:10:14","modified_gmt":"2014-02-12T19:10:14","slug":"peak-demand-in-us-electric-sector","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/2014\/02\/12\/peak-demand-in-us-electric-sector\/","title":{"rendered":"Peak Demand in US Electric Sector"},"content":{"rendered":"

Continuing with our analysis from the previous post discussing Peak Energy<\/a>, we delved into the Peak Demand.\u00a0 Peak Demand is measured in MW vs. Peak Energy MWa.\u00a0\u00a0 Peak demand is typically define as the highest point of energy consumption.\u00a0 This is very important due to the nature of electricity.\u00a0 Compared to other commodities, the whole market would not crash for an extended period of time if one could not supply the peak demand point.\u00a0 However, in the case of electricity this becomes a real problem.\u00a0 Therefore, much planning is focused on peak demand and figuring alternatives to avoid peaks.\u00a0 Many commercial and industrial customers can see the bulk of their bill is tied to the peak vs. their average energy consumption.<\/p>\n

As we discussed in the previous post<\/a>, our objective is to produce a forecasting method for our new product, Power Market Analysis (PMA). \u00a0Now that we had a very good system in forecasting monthly energy across N. America using GDP and CDD and HDD from various parts of the country, we needed a way to forecast the monthly peaks. The analysis of peak demand differed greatly from the analysis of peak energy.\u00a0\u00a0 Applying the same statistical approach used in peak energy was going nowhere.\u00a0\u00a0 First, we had to replace the monthly CDD and HDD with weekly maximums given we wanted to forecast peaks not averages.\u00a0 This improved the analysis.\u00a0\u00a0 As expected, given the economic value of reducing peak vs. energy efficiency we saw many more regions decouple from economic growth in establishing peaks.\u00a0 We also modified the analysis to look at the relationship between average energy and peak demand.\u00a0\u00a0 This method established a range for expected peaks in both a normal expectation of weather to extreme cases of weather variations within a month.<\/p>\n

Counter to many who are have been alarmed at peak demand growing faster than energy, our analysis leads us to forecast a much slower growth in peak vs. energy.\u00a0 This is supported by the economic incentives to reduce peak demand is far greater than reducing energy consumption.\u00a0\u00a0 In addition, measurement and validation of the various programs to mitigate peak demand is much more \u201caccurate\u201d than energy efficiency programs.<\/p>\n

Power Market Analysis (PMA) will allow subscribers a very good view of the power markets and their relationship to the Coal and Gas markets.\u00a0 One of our goals is to increase the fundamental understanding of the market.\u00a0\u00a0 We will issue monthly studies to our subscribers.\u00a0 The inputs will be clearly displayed for both the base and the extreme cases.\u00a0\u00a0 Subscribers will also be able to customize runs.\u00a0 There is a large incentive for early bird subscribers.\u00a0 Please do reach out to me ASAP if you are interested in signing up to PMA (614-356-0484 dkb@allenergyconsulting.com<\/a> ).\u00a0\u00a0 We will send a sample file you can expect from PMA.\u00a0 The official product launch likely in the later part of February.\u00a0 Besides a financial discount early birds will also be able to guide the product development of PMA and be able to get \u201cfree\u201d reports while we finalize the product.\u00a0\u00a0 We are building PMA to allow the evolution of the product.\u00a0 Our current long-term vision could have users having the ability to submit input changes and output be generated for them overnight.<\/p>\n

Your Enthused Energy Consultant,<\/p>\n

David K. Bellman<\/a><\/p>\n

614-356-0484<\/p>\n

Twitter: AECDKB<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Continuing with our analysis from the previous post discussing Peak Energy, we delved into the Peak Demand.\u00a0 Peak Demand is measured in MW vs. Peak Energy MWa.\u00a0\u00a0 Peak demand is typically define as the highest point of energy consumption.\u00a0 This is very important due to the nature of electricity.\u00a0 Compared to other commodities, the whole […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":267,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,6],"tags":[234,232,45,212,248],"class_list":["post-992","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-insights","category-power","tag-demand-side-management","tag-dsm","tag-energy-efficiency","tag-peak-demand","tag-peak-energy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/992","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=992"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/992\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":995,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/992\/revisions\/995"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/267"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=992"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=992"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=992"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}