{"id":245,"date":"2012-02-13T12:19:52","date_gmt":"2012-02-13T18:19:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/?p=245"},"modified":"2012-02-15T17:56:30","modified_gmt":"2012-02-15T23:56:30","slug":"potential-for-natural-gas-demand-in-the-power-sector","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/2012\/02\/13\/potential-for-natural-gas-demand-in-the-power-sector\/","title":{"rendered":"Potential for Natural Gas Demand in the Power Sector"},"content":{"rendered":"

As a forecaster, I have typically been inclined to go full steam ahead and use the fundamentals to drive my forecast.\u00a0 However for the past 7 years, my approach has changed given the amount of uncertainty we see in the market.\u00a0\u00a0 These uncertainties are no longer driven by pure economic fundamentals, but stem from political bias.\u00a0\u00a0 These political bias ranges from perpetuating economic risk taking by keeping interest rates low to banning types of energy because of irrational fear.\u00a0\u00a0 This requires a sense of humility to realize your forecast may be far from the truth.\u00a0 However, all is not lost, since it is still best to foresee than not to foresee at all (Henri Poincare).\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0In\u00a0order\u00a0to forecast in this world of uncertainty,\u00a0one needs\u00a0a scenario planning perspective.\u00a0\u00a0 The goal is not to point forecast, but to get a sense of risk and rewards.\u00a0 One wants to find the plan that will be robust in multiple scenarios, if not downright one-sided to your favor \u2013 the latter being much less frequent.\u00a0 A good starting point is to look at the world in terms of potentials.\u00a0 This simplifies the multitude of scenarios one could create.\u00a0 If one can tail-end your scenarios, you will have a better grasp of why you are looking at a certain view point to being able to drive to a scenario of better reasoning.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

In the analysis work we did with the Center for Energy Economics at the University of Texas, we examined the tail-end potential for natural gas consumption in the power sector.\u00a0\u00a0 Our final results of this potential study can be found <\/span>here<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0 We show that the potential gas demand in the power sector is significantly greater (30+% – 17 tcf vs. 12.8 tcf) than the highest potential examined in the latest National Petroleum Council report \u2013 <\/span>\u201cPrudent Development \u2013 Realizing the Potential of North America\u2019s Abundant Natural Gas and Oil Resources\u201d<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a>.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/strong>The most likely reality as noted in the report\u00a0are the results we presented. This will not likely be achieved in terms of total gas consumption in the power sector, but\u00a0the results\u00a0do highlight the need for the gas and power industry to be cognizant of each other.\u00a0 Our result supports the premise for further continued monitoring and evaluation for natural gas demand in the power sector. \u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Let us help you frame and develop a methodology to model your energy concerns.\u00a0 The Center for Energy Economics is just one case\u00a0about us that we\u00a0delivered on our promise; leaving them with useful knowledge and the potential to grow without further consulting.<\/span><\/p>\n

At All Energy Consulting, we positively and evocatively challenge the current thinking involving any aspect of energy use. We look for projects that offer meaningful, transformative, with impactful outcome to the marketplace or society. <\/span><\/p>\n

Independent analysis and opinions without a bias right is what we offer to our clients. Please consider and contact All Energy Consulting when you need a consulting service.<\/span><\/p>\n

Your Energy Consultant,<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

David K. Bellman<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As a forecaster, I have typically been inclined to go full steam ahead and use the fundamentals to drive my forecast.\u00a0 However for the past 7 years, my approach has changed given the amount of uncertainty we see in the market.\u00a0\u00a0 These uncertainties are no longer driven by pure economic fundamentals, but stem from political […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":34,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,3,6],"tags":[84,85,14,82,86,369,83],"class_list":["post-245","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-insights","category-natural-gas","category-power","tag-forecast","tag-national-petroleum-concil","tag-natural-gas-2","tag-natural-gas-demand","tag-npc","tag-power","tag-scenario-planning"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/245","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=245"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/245\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":249,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/245\/revisions\/249"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/34"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=245"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=245"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=245"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}