We are currently in our continuous improvement plan cycle for Power Modeling Analysis (PMA).\u00a0 This includes updating our loads and revisiting our calibrations and adding other regions into our suite of fully calibrated pricing hubs.\u00a0 The process of calibrations requires the knowledge of understanding all the drivers of a dispatch model.\u00a0 With over 85 characteristics that drive unit operation and another 30+ combination of logic switches to change the dispatch algorithm requires years of experience to navigate and find the right recipe to produce the correct results.<\/p>\n
Building and maintaining models is not an easy task.\u00a0 Typically these task are regulated to an inexperienced analyst which can lead to frustrating results and multiple waste of time.\u00a0\u00a0 Our Power Modeling Analysis (PMA) requires 100\u2019s of hours to maintain and that is using a decade long full-ranged experience power analyst who, not only is experienced in the analytics and software side, but also experienced in the management and operation of utilities.<\/p>\n
There will be no model that is perfect \u2013 but we at All Energy Consulting have the pursuit of a perfect model.\u00a0\u00a0 Waiting for the perfect model, you will be stuck in analysis paralysis which is as worse as having no model at all.\u00a0\u00a0 Using inexperience analyst, you will lose the most important things in a model \u2013 the intimate awareness of the models limitations.\u00a0 I personally know all the limitations and issues with the PMA model.\u00a0 Many have asked the PMA model to do weekly projections \u2013 this is very possible, but this requires a different setup and data feed.\u00a0\u00a0 The current data feed (monthly forward curves) limits the current setup.\u00a0 Plus the weekly requirements will need greater precision, such as outage feeds and more real-time load.\u00a0 All this is possible and we will pursue this, if our clients desire it.<\/p>\n
As I noted in my Power Modeling whitepaper<\/a> there is a significant amount of work required to model the power markets.\u00a0\u00a0 Can you afford to leave that work to inexperienced analyst? I know some companies have a staff of 10+ trying to manage a power model.\u00a0 With that many hands in the model, there will be many issues in just the maintenance of the model.\u00a0 Then, typically many of them are all working on other projects not related to the model.\u00a0\u00a0 This causes a lot of the work of maintaining and managing a power model to an inexperienced analyst.\u00a0 I have observed the destruction of great initial work, crumbling to meaningless garbage of output.<\/p>\n Besides running our own model and having the ability to customize it for each client, we can also help you maintain and operate your internal power models.\u00a0\u00a0 It would not be cost effective to have a full-time, very experienced power analyst spending their effort on a model, given all the other task required to do in the company.\u00a0\u00a0 Even if you could afford it, your typical employee probably does not enjoy that.\u00a0 They rather be fully engage in the results and leading the company in actionable decisions.<\/p>\n A model, no matter a power model or refinery model, the value is ultimately the ability to decipher the results and apply meaning to them.\u00a0\u00a0 The only way that occurs is if you intimately know the models limitations and continuously maintain it.\u00a0\u00a0 The markets are changing and your model will never be perfect, so a continuous improvement plan is needed.\u00a0 PMA has a continuous improvement plan.\u00a0\u00a0 All Energy Consulting can help you understand the power markets by offering our PMA platform or helping you with your internal modeling efforts.<\/p>\n Stay tune our PMA results of Gas to Coal switching for 2015 summer will be released soon.<\/p>\n Your Tireless Energy Analyst,<\/p>\n David<\/p>\n David K. Bellman
\nFounder\/Principal
\nAll Energy Consulting LLC- “Adding insights to the energy markets for your success.\u201d
\n614-356-0484
\ndkb@allenergyconsulting.com
\n<\/a>@AECDKB<\/p>\n