{"id":1546,"date":"2015-01-29T11:47:15","date_gmt":"2015-01-29T17:47:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/?p=1546"},"modified":"2015-01-29T12:05:05","modified_gmt":"2015-01-29T18:05:05","slug":"are-you-ready-for-epa-csapr-nox-and-so2-values-computed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/2015\/01\/29\/are-you-ready-for-epa-csapr-nox-and-so2-values-computed\/","title":{"rendered":"Are you ready for EPA CSAPR? NOx and SO2 Values Computed"},"content":{"rendered":"

Emission markets are one of All Energy Consulting core expertise given our work at the largest emitter American Electric Power.\u00a0\u00a0 Modeling the emission markets requires game theory and operations research \u2013 both those categories are my personal favorite.\u00a0\u00a0 With the Supreme Court reinstating Cross State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) in April 2014 and with the D.C. Circuit granted EPA’s request on October 23, 2014,, CSAPR Phase 1 implementation is now scheduled for 2015, with Phase 2 beginning in 2017.<\/p>\n

As typical of the emissions market, the initial market over reacted valuing credits way above reality \u2013 starting 2015 – 2015 NOx annual and season $250\/ton and Group 1 SO2 $250\/ton and Group 2 SO2 $450\/ton.\u00a0 The market is slowly coming back to reality.\u00a0\u00a0 One variable to watch is the direct link between the price spread between natural gas price and coal and the value of emissions credit.\u00a0\u00a0 The smaller the spread the easier to achieve if not overachieve the goals set forth in CSAPR.<\/p>\n

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The key in modeling this system is to run multiple scenarios for the entire system and focus on the end total levels not a particular month.\u00a0 The ultimate value of a credit really is at the end of the season.\u00a0 This is akin to buying a stock option; the ultimate value of your options is when you can exercise that option.\u00a0 Making it slightly more complex is the banking.\u00a0\u00a0 Therefore in order to truly value the program, modeling the end goal targets beyond year 1 will also be required.<\/p>\n

We have run multiple scenarios and have computed values for NOx and SO2 along the paradigm of changing events from gas prices to weather.\u00a0\u00a0 On a high level, the value of NOX and SO2 will be way lower than the current market pricing including accounting for the banking value.\u00a0 NOX summer is the most constrained versus the other emission credits.\u00a0\u00a0 In order to make an effective decision in your emission credits please reach out to us to view our results of our analysis and potentially customize a case run for your portfolio.\u00a0 We can help you maximize your credit values.<\/p>\n

Once again I promise unparalleled analysis and knowledge on this subject matter from me personally, not a person without any industry knowledge or experience in the emission markets.\u00a0 Please do consider All Energy Consulting for you emissions credits analysis \u2013 we are here for your success.<\/p>\n

Your Emissions Market Expert Energy Analyst,<\/p>\n

David<\/p>\n

David K. Bellman
\nFounder\/Principal
\nAll Energy Consulting LLC- “Adding insights to the energy markets for your success.\u201d
\n614-356-0484
\ndkb@allenergyconsulting.com
\n<\/a>@AECDKB<\/p>\n

Sign Up to AEC Free Energy Market Insights Newsletter<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Emission markets are one of All Energy Consulting core expertise given our work at the largest emitter American Electric Power.\u00a0\u00a0 Modeling the emission markets requires game theory and operations research \u2013 both those categories are my personal favorite.\u00a0\u00a0 With the Supreme Court reinstating Cross State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) in April 2014 and with the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":32,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,6],"tags":[5,351,12,30,350,202],"class_list":["post-1546","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-insights","category-power","tag-csapr","tag-emission-credit","tag-emissions","tag-epa","tag-nox","tag-so2"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1546","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1546"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1546\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1553,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1546\/revisions\/1553"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/32"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1546"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1546"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1546"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}