{"id":1245,"date":"2014-09-04T11:58:17","date_gmt":"2014-09-04T16:58:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/?p=1245"},"modified":"2014-09-05T06:10:51","modified_gmt":"2014-09-05T11:10:51","slug":"excellent-returns-were-produced-from-pmas-summer-model-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/2014\/09\/04\/excellent-returns-were-produced-from-pmas-summer-model-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"Excellent Returns Were Produced From PMA\u2019s Summer Model Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"

As noted in our previous article – Effective Power Hedging<\/a>, Power Market Analysis (PMA) can also be used for strictly hedging purposes.\u00a0\u00a0 However the roots of PMA are for power trading.\u00a0\u00a0 In this article we will examine PMA power trading results for the summer of 2014.\u00a0\u00a0 We will demonstrate that our model and our advance trade screener have produced numerous winning trades over the course of the summer, generating significant returns with minimal risk.<\/p>\n

As illustrated in our previous article<\/a>, the non-customized PMA trade screener produced a winning portfolio of trades yielding over 10% returns in a month.\u00a0\u00a0 This portfolio of trade opportunities was developed with no additional tools and insights other than our model calculations.\u00a0 All Energy Consulting believes incorporating PMA with other tools such as weather forecast (e.g., temperatures, rainfall, etc.) and market data feeds (e.g., outages, transmission constraints, etc.) will lead to even greater returns.\u00a0\u00a0 We believe incorporating that knowledge in our previous example would have likely led to redistribution in the PMA portfolio, producing returns in excess of 20% vs. the 10% demonstrated.<\/p>\n

PMA does not forecast weather.\u00a0 However it does run a range of simulations which can be used to predict the various outcomes of the future given changes in weather, gas prices, outages, and more.\u00a0\u00a0 These sensitivities can easily be customized for your efforts.\u00a0 Using the default changes setup by All Energy Consulting, the model can identify fundamentally-flawed future market expectations, given the likely realities displayed in various future outcomes the model generates.\u00a0 These are the minimal risk trade opportunities identified by the trade screener. The trade screener scans through the various permutations and identifies these minimal risk trade opportunities, allowing one to quickly find a trade to execute.<\/p>\n

In this article, we will not only review trades on a physical basis (as presented in the last article<\/a>), but we also demonstrate the trade screener and how it can be used as a power tool within a financial trading effort to great success.\u00a0 In order to demonstrate the financial trading value of PMA, we will examine our predictions two months out, which was developed by PMA.\u00a0\u00a0 As in our previous article<\/a>, \u00a0our starting date is May 20th<\/span>\u00a02014.\u00a0 We\u2019ve screened for the trades in July On-Peak.\u00a0 Two value creating trades (both sell recommendations) were identified by PMA, \u2013 ERCOT North and Palo Verde \u2013 displayed in the screen shot below.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Executing both these of these trades would have yielded an average return of 22%.\u00a0\u00a0 The results are presented below.\u00a0\u00a0 In this case, a financial trade to sell ERCOT North and Palo Verde July contract is made on May 20th<\/span>\u00a0and then bought back a month later on June 20th<\/span>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

If the trades were taken to the physical market an average gain of 68% could have been made.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

For June 20th<\/span>\u00a02014 the trade screener found no minimal risk trades two months out.\u00a0 Note: In trading, sometimes it\u2019s best to hold on to what you have.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Our July 21st<\/span>\u00a02014 screening did produce a set of winning physical trades for August — yielding 13% with three trades.\u00a0 For the two months out trade (September) \u2013 PMA showed its first buy signal in a while \u2013 NI-Hub On-Peak.\u00a0 On a financial basis that trade was only slightly up as seen below.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

As noted previously, the above examples were produced using PMA only, absent of any additional tools such as (weather, market changes, etc.).\u00a0 As also mentioned earlier, integration of additional tools can be incorporated to produce even better portfolio results.\u00a0 All Energy Consulting is willing to team up with trading firms to advise and customize runs and screens to produce a winning power trading book with no upfront cost<\/span>.\u00a0 This commitment should illustrate our confidence in the value created using PMA. \u00a0\u00a0AEC will consider taking a percentage of the profits as our only compensation.\u00a0 Please call or email for more information on this limited opportunity.<\/p>\n

All historical runs and reports are online.\u00a0 The above can be easily recreated when you subscribe.\u00a0 We do not hide from our past results.\u00a0 Never be out of touch with the market.\u00a0\u00a0 PMA is updated daily.\u00a0 Get a 30 day trial for only $1000.<\/p>\n

Your Energy Consultant,<\/p>\n

David
\nDavid K. Bellman
\nFounder & Principal
\nAll Energy Consulting LLC
\n“Independent analysis and opinions without a bias.”
\n614-356-0484
\ndkb@allenergyconsulting.com
\nblog: https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/category\/market-insights\/<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As noted in our previous article – Effective Power Hedging, Power Market Analysis (PMA) can also be used for strictly hedging purposes.\u00a0\u00a0 However the roots of PMA are for power trading.\u00a0\u00a0 In this article we will examine PMA power trading results for the summer of 2014.\u00a0\u00a0 We will demonstrate that our model and our advance […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":216,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,6],"tags":[268,11],"class_list":["post-1245","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-insights","category-power","tag-power-trading","tag-trading"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1245","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1245"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1245\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1257,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1245\/revisions\/1257"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/216"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1245"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1245"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1245"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}