{"id":1200,"date":"2014-07-13T10:13:38","date_gmt":"2014-07-13T15:13:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/?p=1200"},"modified":"2014-07-14T07:20:27","modified_gmt":"2014-07-14T12:20:27","slug":"winning-power-trades-identified-by-pma","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/2014\/07\/13\/winning-power-trades-identified-by-pma\/","title":{"rendered":"Winning Power Trades Identified by PMA"},"content":{"rendered":"

Many have given up on power trading due to various reasons from new banking regulations to limited volatility over the past few years due to gas prices.\u00a0\u00a0 However as many leave the market, there is much opportunity being created in the market place.\u00a0\u00a0 The power markets are vast and complex requiring a comprehensive energy background to truly understand the inner workings.\u00a0\u00a0 With many years and significant market knowledge, Power Market Analysis (PMA) was developed to help unlock the opportunities in the power markets.\u00a0 The following will present post analysis of June trades and an example value of PMA.<\/p>\n

One of the latest tools within PMA is the power trade screener.\u00a0\u00a0 The power trade screener is capable of processing the entire N. American markets and producing a table of trades given a set of criteria on the various dispatch simulations used in the PMA.\u00a0\u00a0 The basic PMA offering is running three runs focused on power price volatility \u2013 Base, High, and Low power price cases.\u00a0\u00a0 The formulation of these runs are available for subscribers plus can be customized for each client depending on location interest and volatility expectations.\u00a0\u00a0 The current criteria for the screener is to find trades that in ALL three cases produce a result that lies on one side of the current forward curve.\u00a0\u00a0 Therefore if all three cases are below the forward curve, it is a sell. \u00a0And if all three cases are above, it is a buy.<\/p>\n

On May 20th\u00a0<\/span>2014, the following represented the power trade screener view examining On-Peak Trades for the month of June. \u00a0(Click on Image to Zoom)<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

In addition to the power trade screener, the heat rate screener also shows the same June Sell alerts for those regions. (Heat Rate trade is Power Contract \/ Gas Contract – if you believe heat rates are going down you sell power and buy gas)<\/p>\n

The results of these trade recommendations can be examined now.\u00a0 The below table show the results of those trades.\u00a0(Click on Image to Zoom)<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The power trades identified by the screener produce 1 out of 3 winning trades. \u00a0\u00a0However, if each trade was purchased in equal volumes the trades would have netted out $13.8\/MWh.\u00a0\u00a0 The best trade was NEPOOL.\u00a0 This is also supported by the backcasting of NEPOOL in the model being superior relative to other markets.\u00a0\u00a0 On a heat rates basis, 2 out 3 trades would have been winning trades.<\/p>\n

Everyday, this analysis is done.\u00a0 Users can learn the patterns and make the adjustments.\u00a0\u00a0 There is money to be made with markets that are less liquid for those who have the financial and aptitude capabilities.\u00a0 The screener and the simulated runs can be customized for each client.<\/p>\n

Please contact me for a demo \u2013 dkb@allenergyconsulting.com<\/a> \u2013 614-356-0484<\/p>\n

Your Ever Improving Energy Analyst,<\/p>\n

David<\/p>\n

David K. Bellman
\nFounder & Principal
\nAll Energy Consulting LLC
\n“Independent analysis and opinions without a bias.”
\n614-356-0484
\ndkb@allenergyconsulting.com<\/a>
\nblog:\u00a0https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/category\/market-insights\/<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Many have given up on power trading due to various reasons from new banking regulations to limited volatility over the past few years due to gas prices.\u00a0\u00a0 However as many leave the market, there is much opportunity being created in the market place.\u00a0\u00a0 The power markets are vast and complex requiring a comprehensive energy background […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":216,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,6],"tags":[292,99,268,11],"class_list":["post-1200","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-insights","category-power","tag-heat-rates","tag-power-prices","tag-power-trading","tag-trading"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1200","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1200"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1200\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1207,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1200\/revisions\/1207"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/216"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1200"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1200"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1200"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}