{"id":1054,"date":"2014-04-07T16:45:12","date_gmt":"2014-04-07T21:45:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/?p=1054"},"modified":"2014-04-10T08:29:42","modified_gmt":"2014-04-10T13:29:42","slug":"normal-weather-vs-10-year-average-significant-impact-to-gas-and-power-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/2014\/04\/07\/normal-weather-vs-10-year-average-significant-impact-to-gas-and-power-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Normal Weather vs. 10 year Average &#8211; Significant impact to Gas and Power Markets"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>We are investigating &#8220;normal&#8221; weather. \u00a0 Our normal weather came from NOAA. \u00a0According to NOAA, \u201cClimate Normals are the latest three-decade averages of climatological variables including temperature and precipitation. This product is produced once every 10 years. The 1981\u20132010 U.S. Climate Normals dataset is the latest release of NCDC\u2019s Climate Normals.\u201d \u00a0In the last 10 years, not many places have been close to normal. \u00a0The trend in both HDD and CDD shows to be warmer over the last 10 years as compared to normal. \u00a0More CDD and less HDD are observed when comparing to normals.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/USCDDvsNormal.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-1055\" title=\"USCDDvsNormal\" src=\"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/USCDDvsNormal.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"349\" srcset=\"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/USCDDvsNormal.jpg 1067w, https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/USCDDvsNormal-300x163.jpg 300w, https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/USCDDvsNormal-1024x557.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/USHDDvsNormal.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-1056\" title=\"USHDDvsNormal\" src=\"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/USHDDvsNormal.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"349\" srcset=\"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/USHDDvsNormal.jpg 1067w, https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/USHDDvsNormal-300x163.jpg 300w, https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/USHDDvsNormal-1024x557.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The 10 year average is clearly warmer than the NOAA normals. \u00a0 The impact on our base case in our <a href=\"http:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/category\/pma\/\">Power Market Analysis (PMA) product<\/a> shows a significant impact on the power markets. \u00a0This translated to natural gas demand in the power sector rising 8% compared to the base case for this summer. \u00a0Winter is essentially the same.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/PMA10yrSummer.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1057\" title=\"PMA10yrSummer\" src=\"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/PMA10yrSummer.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"481\" height=\"278\" srcset=\"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/PMA10yrSummer.jpg 481w, https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/PMA10yrSummer-300x173.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 481px) 100vw, 481px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/PMA10yrWinter.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1058\" title=\"PMA10yrWinter\" src=\"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/PMA10yrWinter.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"481\" height=\"278\" srcset=\"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/PMA10yrWinter.jpg 481w, https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/PMA10yrWinter-300x173.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 481px) 100vw, 481px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Power prices are significantly impacted by the weather change in certain regions.\u00a0 The below figures are screenshots which come from our online interface for our Power Market Analysis (PMA) subscribers.\u00a0\u00a0 Each day the model dispatches the entire N. America based on the latest future markets price for coal and gas. \u00a0Daily files are produced each morning similar to the above graphs.\u00a0 Plus the online interface allows users to quickly compare various runs.\u00a0 In this case, we are comparing the 10 year average weather vs. the Normal weather supplied by NOAA.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/PMAonscreen2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-1060\" title=\"PMAonscreen2\" src=\"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/PMAonscreen2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"650\" height=\"376\" srcset=\"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/PMAonscreen2.jpg 894w, https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/PMAonscreen2-300x173.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/PMAonscreen3.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-1061\" title=\"PMAonscreen3\" src=\"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/PMAonscreen3.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"626\" height=\"355\" srcset=\"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/PMAonscreen3.jpg 894w, https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/PMAonscreen3-300x170.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 626px) 100vw, 626px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/PMAonscreen4.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-1062\" title=\"PMAonscreen4\" src=\"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/PMAonscreen4.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"630\" height=\"357\" srcset=\"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/PMAonscreen4.jpg 900w, https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/PMAonscreen4-300x170.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 630px) 100vw, 630px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/PMAonscreen5.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-1063\" title=\"PMAonscreen5\" src=\"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/PMAonscreen5.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"632\" height=\"363\" srcset=\"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/PMAonscreen5.jpg 903w, https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/PMAonscreen5-300x172.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 632px) 100vw, 632px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/PMAonscreen6.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-1064\" title=\"PMAonscreen6\" src=\"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/PMAonscreen6.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"617\" height=\"361\" srcset=\"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/PMAonscreen6.jpg 882w, https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/PMAonscreen6-300x175.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 617px) 100vw, 617px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Many more regions are available to compare. \u00a0In addition to power prices, there are comparison available for coal and gas consumption and input price comparison. \u00a0Easy drop downs allow one to see how the future markets have impacted the power markets. \u00a0PMA subscribers get access to the files including a complete analysis of 2015 and 2016 comparing the NOAA normals vs. 10 year average.<\/p>\n<p>Soon, PMA subscribers will get a complete analysis of the last 10 year weather. \u00a0Each year will be individually analyzed allowing subscribers to be able to choose analog years to represent the forecast.<\/p>\n<p>PMA subscribers get the online access, the daily files, and the study files. \u00a0 In addition, prime members receive-at no additional cost-reports such as\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/2014\/03\/16\/summer-2014-outlook-power-gas-coal-and-generation-fleets\/\" target=\"_blank\">the Summer 2014 Outlook report<\/a>\u00a0,\u00a0the recent\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/Comparison2013v2014base.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">briefing\u00a0<\/a>on what is causing the gas demand drop, and where it is coming from. \u00a0Subscribers also have the opportunity for free private consultations. \u00a0Discussions can range from answering more detailed questions on the studies to discussing potential scenarios of the future.<\/p>\n<p>Please contact me to schedule an online demo meeting<a href=\"mailto:dkb@allenergyconsulting.com\" target=\"_blank\">dkb@allenergyconsulting.com<\/a>\u00a0or 614-356-0484<\/p>\n<p>Your Inspired Energy Consultant,<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>David<\/p>\n<p>David K. Bellman<br \/>\nFounder &amp; Principal<br \/>\nAll Energy Consulting LLC<br \/>\n&#8220;Independent analysis and opinions without a bias.&#8221;<br \/>\n614-356-0484<br \/>\n<a href=\"mailto:dkb@allenergyconsulting.com\" target=\"_blank\">dkb@allenergyconsulting.com<\/a><br \/>\nblog:\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/cts.vresp.com\/c\/?AllEnergyConsultingL\/2bf203f496\/44d67ad3f7\/36de6f162b\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/category\/market-insights\/<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We are investigating &#8220;normal&#8221; weather. \u00a0 Our normal weather came from NOAA. \u00a0According to NOAA, \u201cClimate Normals are the latest three-decade averages of climatological variables including temperature and precipitation. This product is produced once every 10 years. The 1981\u20132010 U.S. Climate Normals dataset is the latest release of NCDC\u2019s Climate Normals.\u201d \u00a0In the last 10 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":216,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,3,6],"tags":[265,130,266,82,263,264,99],"class_list":["post-1054","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-insights","category-natural-gas","category-power","tag-cdd","tag-coal-demand","tag-hdd","tag-natural-gas-demand","tag-noaa","tag-normal-weather","tag-power-prices"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1054","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1054"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1054\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1069,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1054\/revisions\/1069"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/216"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1054"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1054"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allenergyconsulting.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1054"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}